Kenya Market Review Q2 2019
Executive Summary
Kenya offers a comparatively high rating for ease of doing business, reformation of restrictive trade practices, positive economic prospects, governmental commitment to capital projects and favourable regional and global trade agreements.
An indicator of the potential of the country in the coming decade, and the Government’s confidence in a strong economic future, is the Vision 2030 initiative towards creating an industrial middle-income nation with its emphasis on manufacturing, universal healthcare, affordable housing and food security.
Kenya is also prepared to invest in training up its workforce with the aim of providing a labour pool possessing the technical skills necessary for a nation to be competitive in the current marketplace.
THE USAID work in the country’s vital agriculture sector, especially in the area of developing the awareness of global communities towards more sustainable farming techniques, is an indication of the flexibility of both the workforce and the authorities towards partnerships with bodies from other nations.
Joint ventures in the fields of tourism and transport are also successfully underway, as well as a focus on creating new energy sources away from the traditional use of wood and fossil fuels.
These factors, together with a stronger national business confidence and the ongoing government investments, are establishing a stable economic platform nurturing growth, as demonstrated by the expected GDP rise to 5.8% in 2019.
Kenya’s population is forecast to exceed 87 million by 2040 and would require significant investment to maintain the current standard of living. Infrastructure and Healthcare sectors needing the largest share.
Forecast 2040
Selected Economic indicators
Major figures and organisations
Exports
Major infrastructure projects
Growth sectors
Legal framework
Demographics
GDP Projections
Table 1 showing the Kenyan GDP as well as the GDP from each sector in millions of Kenyan Shillings and the percentage of the total GDP each sector makes up.
Table 1: Kenya GDP breakdown
| 2017 | KSh million | US$ million | % of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 7,749.4 | 76.6 | |
| Agriculture | 2,442.3 | 24.1 | 31.5 |
| Manufacturing | 648.4 | 6.4 | 8.4 |
| Transport | 599.4 | 5.9 | 7.7 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | 588.5 | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| Financial and Insurance | 577.8 | 5.7 | 7.5 |
| Real estate | 575.3 | 5.6 | 7.4 |
| Construction | 452.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 |
| Information and communication | 406.4 | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| Public Administration | 330.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 |
| Education | 319.4 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Utilities | 196.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Health | 126.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Mining and quarrying | 58.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Accommodation and restaurant | 58.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Source: Focus-economics, Ceicdata, Trading Economics
Macroeconomics
At the start of this year, weaker domestic demand caused a slowdown in private sector activity. However, this was offset by a buoyant tourism industry and continued solid remittance inflows which combined to narrow the account deficit and cushion the worst impacts of the decline.
The country is now aiming to raise up to KSh 50 billion (US$ 495 million) through auctioning a tax-free 25-year amortised infrastructure bond on 20 March, which will be used to fund Big Four development projects.
The bond, which will be auctioned according to the country’s central bank, which added that it be tax-free, in line with the government’s policy of encouraging investors to bank infrastructure bonds.
However fiscal consolidation is a major priority in order to reign in the country’s increasing public debt – a necessary condition in order to secure a new IMF standby credit facility.
For this year, economic prospects look positive as stronger business confidence should underpin solid growth in fixed investment, while governmental commitment to spending remains firm on infrastructure projects. Private consumption growth, however, is forecast to ease off, amidst tighter credit conditions.
The following policies are aimed at enhancing growth and development through deepening of economic regional integration:
1. Increase the productivity of the economy by promoting agro-processing and developing value chains even at regional level and exploit extractive resources to diversify sources of growth. Boosting private investment is also a priority.
2. Expand the export market through diversification of both products and destinations. This will in turn boost the development of industries in the priority sectors in the country.
3. Expand business development programmes to strengthen and integrate the wholesale and retail supply chains. Also, to improve the business environment for both wholesalers and retailers, rationalise and harmonise regulations across both national and county governments.
4. Establish a National Trade Commission to implement the National Trade Policy and coordinate bilateral, regional and multilateral trade issues.
5. Develop a tourism master plan to enhance sustainable development of the sector.
6. Train farmers on appropriate farming methods and management of post-harvest losses and improve food distribution to address food deficit. Promote commercialisation and value addition to boost productivity.
7. Eliminate non-tariff barriers on the East African Community (EAC) borders and simplify rules of origin to enhance cross-border trade and minimise food insecurity in the region.
8. Progressively diversify manufacturing to medium and high technology products and establish incubation centres to nurture innovation, in order to help in diversifying manufactured exports.
9. Invest in domestic infrastructure targeting to feed into the regional connectivity and support Trans-African infrastructure development. Scale-up measures towards least-cost energy technologies to support large scale industries and design a package for an infrastructure services hub.
10. Establish a joint labour portal to create awareness and enhance information sharing to facilitate wider labour mobility in the EAC region. In addition, standardise the certification and accreditation of professionals.
11. Continue promoting peace and security in the region to reduce conflicts, and displacement of persons.
12. Enhance citizen participation and representation at national and regional level to strengthen governance institutions.
13. Develop a comprehensive framework for implementation of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA), including identifying specific roles of various agencies, documentation of violations and domestication of various provisions.
14. Remain alert to any changes in global strategy on foreign policy and security particularly by Europe and the United States.