Kenya has a low carbon and diverse energy mix, with geothermal and hydro power the main sources of electricity supply. The biggest producer is the parastatal Kenya Electricity Generating Company, which accounts for about 74% of the energy consumed, with independent power producers largely contributing the remainder.
Peak demand in 2017/18 was 1,802MW, while installed capacity was 2,351MW.
Electricity consumption has been rising at a compound annual rate of 6.2% since 2012 as more and more households and businesses are connected to the grid. Under its vision for Kenya to become an industrialised and middle income country, the government is aiming for universal electricity access by 2022. Today, some 73% of households have access to electricity through grid and off-grid solutions, compared with just 29% five years ago.
A number of energy-intensive infrastructure projects are also in the pipeline, which is complicating electricity demand forecasting in Kenya due to uncertainty over their completion.
For generation planning purposes, a hybrid forecast of various growth scenarios is being used, under which peak load is expected to increase to 3,348 MW in 2022.
In December 2018, Kenya published a 100-page document entitled The Electricity Sector Investment Prospectus, which details $14.8bn of investment opportunities in the country’s power sector up to 2022. Some of the transmission projects in particular are urgently needed.
The investments opportunities include:
• $5.2bn in geothermal power generation;
• $2.9bn in non-geothermal power generation;
• $2.9bn in transmission projects;
• $2.9bn in distribution projects;
• $0.9bn in off-grid electrification projects.
Given past problems in securing public funds for projects, a variety of financial structures are being used, which provides considerable scope for private sector involvement in the Kenyan power sector.
The government has been amending some of the legislation concerning the power sector of late: a new Energy Act was ratified at the end of March, and a Renewable Energy Auctions policy has been proposed – but not yet approved – to complement the Feed-in-Tariff programme, which is now in limbo as a result.
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